Between 1958 and 1978, USA and former USSR sent 59 and 58 moon missions respectively. The lunar race between the two ceased in 1978. End of cold war and collapse of former Soviet Union and subsequent emergence of new multi-polar world order has seen renewed interests in moon missions. Now, in addition to the traditional rivals USA and Russia, many countries like Japan, China, India, UAE, Israel, ESA, Luxembourg and Italy have active lunar programmes. USA dominates the field. Of the new entrants, China and India have made significant inroads and have ambitious lunar programmes in collaboration with partners. NASA Artemis mission aims to re-establish human presence on moon and set up lunar basecamp/infrastructure in near future. China and India also have similar plans. Renewed interests in moon missions by many countries is driven by utilisation of lunar minerals, ice-water and pláss energy (particularly solar) for deep pláss human habitation and for supplementing energy needs of growing global economy. The strategic rivalry between the key players may culminate in pláss conflicts and weaponisation of pláss.
Since 1958 when the first tungl Markmið Pioneer 0 was launched by the USA, there have been about 137 tungl missions so far. Between 1958 and 1978, USA sent 59 missions to the moon while the former Soviet Union launched 58 moon missions, together accounting for over 85% of all lunar missions. It was termed as “lunar race” for superiority. The two countries successfully demonstrated key milestones of “lunar soft-landing” and “sample returns capabilities”. NASA went one step ahead and demonstrated “crewed landing capability” as well. USA remain the only country to have demonstrated maned moon mission capability.
After 1978, there was a lull for over a decade. No moon mission was sent, and the “tungl race” between USA and the former USSR ceased.
Árið 1990 hófust tunglferðir aftur með MUSES áætlun Japans. Sem stendur, auk hefðbundinna keppinauta Bandaríkjanna og Rússlands (sem arftaki fyrrverandi Sovétríkjanna sem hrundi 1991); Japan, Kína, Indland, Sameinuðu arabísku furstadæmin, Ísrael, ESA, Lúxemborg og Ítalía eru með virkar tungláætlanir. Þar af hafa Kína og Indland náð sérstaklega miklum framförum í tungláætlunum sínum.
China’s lunar programme started in 2007 with launch of Chang’e 1. In 2013, Chang’e 3 mission demonstrated China’s soft-landing capability. China’s last lunar mission Chang’e 5 achieved “sample return capability” in 2020. Currently, China is in process of launching crewed tungl mission. India’s lunar programme, on the other hand, began in 2008 with Chandrayaan 1. After a gap of 11 years, Chandrayaan 2 was launched in 2019 but this mission could not achieve lunar soft-landing capability. On 23rd ágúst 2023, tungllending Indlands Vikram of Chandrayaan-3 verkefni örugglega mjúklenda á háum breiddargráðu tunglyfirborðs á suðurpólnum. Þetta var fyrsta tunglferðin sem lenti á suðurpól tunglsins. Með þessu varð Indland fjórða landið (á eftir Bandaríkjunum, Rússlandi og Kína) sem hefur mjúka lendingu á tunglinu.
Since 1990 when moon missions restarted, a total of 47 missions have been sent to the tungl so far. This decade (i.e., 2020s) alone has already seen 19 moon missions. The key players have ambitious plans. NASA intends to build basecamp and related lunar infrastructure to re-establish human presence on moon in 2025 under Artemis program in collaboration with Canada, ESA and India. Russia is has announced to remain in lunar race following failure of her recent Luna 25 mission. China is to send crewed mission and has plans to establish a research station on the moon’s south pole by 2029 in collaboration with Russia. India’s Chandrayaan mission is considered as a steppingstone towards ISRO’s Framtíð millistjörnur missions. Several other national pláss agencies are striving to achieve lunar milestones. Clearly, there is a renewed interest in moon missions hence the impression of “Lunar Race 2.0”
Hvers vegna endurnýjaðir hagsmunir þjóða í tunglferðum?
Missions to tungl are considered steppingstones towards millistjörnur missions. Utilisation of lunar resources will be crucial in future colonisation of pláss (possibility of fjöldaupprýming in future due to natural disasters like volcanic eruption or asteroid impact or due to manmade conditions like climate change or nuclear or biological conflict could not be completely rules out. Spreading out into pláss to become a multi-reikistjarna species is an important long-term consideration before humanity. NASA Artemis program is one such beginning towards future colonisation of pláss). Deep pláss human habitation will very much depend on acquisition of ability to exploit extraterrestrial energy and mineral resources in the solar system to support and sustain crewed missions and pláss híbýli1.
As the nearest celestial body, tungl offers many advantages. It has variety of minerals and materials that can be used to produce propellants for pláss transportation, solar power facilities, industrial plants and structures for human habitations2. Water is very crucial for long-term human habitations in pláss. There is definitive evidence of water ice in the polar regions of tungl3 that the future lunar bases can utilise to support human habitation. Water can also be used to produce rocket propellants locally on the tungl which will make space exploration economical. In view of its low gravity, tungl can serve as more efficient launching site for missions to mars and other celestial bodies.
Moon also has huge potential of “space energy” (i.e., energy resources in outer space) that promises a way forward to the burgeoning energy needs of growing global economy (through supplementing conventional energy supplies on Earth) and the need of an outer space-based energy source for future space explorations. Because of lack of Andrúmsloftið and abundant supply of sunlight, tungl is eminently suitable for setting up solar power stations independent of earth’s biosphere that would supply cheap and clean energy to global economy. Collectors on lunar surface can convert sunlight into microwave or laser which could be directed to the Earth-based receivers to convert into electricity4,5.
Árangursrík geimáætlanir tengja borgarana tilfinningalega saman, treysta þjóðernishyggju og hafa verið uppspretta þjóðarstolts og ættjarðarást. Tungl- og Marsleiðangur hafa einnig þjónað löndum við að leita að og endurheimta valdastöðu í samfélagi þjóða, sérstaklega í hinni nýju fjölpólu heimsskipulagi frá lokum kalda stríðsins og hruns Sovétríkjanna. Kínversk tungláætlun er dæmi um það6.
Perhaps, one of key drivers of lunar race 2.0 is strategic rivalry between the United States and the ambitious China in the new world order. There are two main aspects of the rivalry: “crewed mars missions along with lunar basecamps” and “weaponisation of space” resulting in development of space-based weapon/ defence systems7. The idea of common ownership of outer space is likely to be challenged by the Artemis tungl Markmið8 brautryðjandi af Bandaríkjunum og alþjóðlegum samstarfsaðilum þeirra eins og Kanada, ESA og Indlandi. Kína hefur einnig skipulagt svipaða áhöfn og rannsóknarstöð á suðurpól tunglsins í samvinnu við Rússland. Athyglisvert er að Indverski Chandrayaan 3 lenti nýlega mjúklega á suðurpól tunglsins. Vísbendingar eru um samstarf milli Indlands og Japans vegna tunglleiðangra í framtíðinni.
Stefnumótandi samkeppni milli lykilaðila ásamt vaxandi spennu um aðra þætti (svo sem landamæradeilur Kína við Indland, Japan, Taívan og önnur lönd) hefur tilhneigingu til að ýta undir geimátök og vopnaburð geimsins. Geimtækni hefur tvínota eðli og er hægt að nota sem geimvopn. Laser vopnun geimkerfa9 myndi sérstaklega trufla alþjóðlegan frið og sátt.
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Tilvísanir:
- Ambrose WA, Reilly JF og Peters DC, 2013. Orkuauðlindir fyrir mannabyggð í sólkerfinu og framtíð jarðar í geimnum. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1306/M1011336
- Ambrose WA 2013. Mikilvægi tunglvatnsíss og annarra jarðefnaauðlinda fyrir eldflaugar og landnám tunglsins. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1306/13361567M1013540
- Li S., et al 2018. Beinar vísbendingar um yfirborðsútsettan vatnsís á pólsvæðum tunglsins. Jarð-, andrúmslofts- og plánetuvísindi. 20. ágúst 2018, 115 (36) 8907-8912. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1802345115
- Criswell DR 2013. Sól-Tungl-Jörð Sól-rafmagnskerfi til að gera ótakmarkaða velmegun mannsins kleift. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1306/13361570M1013545 & Lunar sólarorkukerfi DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/45.489729
- Zhang T., et al 2021. Umfjöllun um geimorku. Applied Energy Volume 292, 15. júní 2021, 116896. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116896
- Lagerkvist J., 2023. Loyalty to the Nation: Lunar and Martian Exploration for Lasting Greatness. Birt 22. ágúst 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-40037-7_4
- Zanidis T., 2023. The New Space Race: Between the Great Powers of our Era. Vol. 4 nr. 1 (2023): HAPSc Policy Briefs Series. Birt: 29. júní 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.12681/hapscpbs.35187
- Hanssen, SGL 2023. Aiming for the Moon: Exploring the geopolitical significance of the Artemis Program. UiT Munin. Fæst kl https://hdl.handle.net/10037/29664
- Adkison, TCL 2023. Laser Weaponization Technologies of Space Systems in Outer Space Warfare: A Qualitative Study. Tækniháskólinn í Colorado. Fæst kl https://www.proquest.com/openview/a982160c4a95f6683507078a7f3c946a/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750&diss=y
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